Prediction market and sportsbook
Kalshi vs Caesars
Both let you put money on the same game, and they get to their prices in different ways. Which means that several times a day they disagree about who is going to win. Here is what each one is, what each one costs you, and every disagreement between the two that Level has written down.
The two of them, side by side
Kalshi
- What it is
- A market where you buy contracts in an outcome. A contract costs somewhere between 1c and 99c and pays exactly $1 if that outcome happens, nothing if it does not.
- Who sets the price
- Nobody sets the price. It is whatever another trader will sell to you for right now, so it moves whenever someone changes their mind.
- What it costs you
- A trading fee that depends on the price. Put $100 into a contract at 50c and it costs $3.51; at 90c, where the outcome is closer to settled, it costs $0.70.
Caesars
- What it is
- A sportsbook. You are not buying a contract off another person, you are taking a price the book itself is offering.
- Who sets the price
- The book sets the number and moves it to balance what has been bet on each side. It is priced so the book makes money whichever way the game goes.
- What it costs you
- No separate fee. The book takes its cut inside the odds it shows you, so the number on screen is already the number.
Those fees are the ones Level subtracts before showing you a number, worked out by the same code. Nothing on this site quotes a fee it does not also charge against its own figures.
Why they end up disagreeing
Caesars moves its number to balance the money coming in on each side, because a book makes its living on the spread rather than on picking winners. Kalshi moves because somebody decided a contract was worth more or less than the last person paid for it. Two different pressures, so the two numbers are only ever loosely tied together.
When they drift far enough apart, backing one side on Kalshi and the other side on Caesars pays back more than the two orders cost, whichever way the game goes. Far enough means after both fees and after the cost of your own order moving the price, which is most of the reason a gap that looks big turns out not to be one.
What we have recorded between these two
56
Gaps found
22.2%
Median gap
36.2%
Biggest gap
Seen so far in UCL, MLS, NFL, WTA, Ligue 1, ATP.
- Oct 19PSG @ BarcelonaCaesars + Kalshi21.7%
- Oct 19Bayern Munich @ ArsenalKalshi + Caesars28.8%
- Oct 17Real Madrid @ LeipzigKalshi + Caesars16.1%
- Oct 17Liverpool @ VillarrealKalshi + Caesars21.5%
- Oct 16Manchester City @ AEK AthensCaesars + Kalshi5.3%
- Oct 16Porto @ EindhovenKalshi + Caesars24.8%
- Oct 15Cincinnati @ ColumbusKalshi + Caesars26.3%
- Oct 15Inter @ ShakhtarKalshi + Caesars12.8%
- Oct 15Sabah Masazir @ DortmundKalshi + Caesars16.3%
- Oct 14Napoli @ Bodoe/GlimtKalshi + Caesars22.7%
- Oct 14Stuttgart @ AtleticoKalshi + Caesars30.3%
- Oct 14Real Betis @ FeyenoordKalshi + Caesars23.8%
- Oct 14Sporting CP @ LASKKalshi + Caesars14.7%
- Oct 14Aston Villa @ VikingKalshi + Caesars13.8%
- Oct 14Roma @ Slovan BratislavaKalshi + Caesars8.6%
- Oct 14Manchester City @ AEK AthensKalshi + Caesars5.3%
- Oct 14Como @ Manchester UnitedKalshi + Caesars28.8%
- Oct 12Sabah Masazir @ Slavia PragueKalshi + Caesars31.4%
- Oct 12Arsenal @ LilleKalshi + Caesars14.1%
- Oct 12Inter @ Club BruggeKalshi + Caesars14.4%
The 20 most recent of 56. Each percentage is what the quoted prices implied at the moment we saw them, after both fees and after the cost of your own order moving the price. Nobody placed these, and nothing already written down is ever recalculated. The whole record is on the log.
Before you go looking for one
You need an account at both, funded, before a gap shows up rather than after. Gaps close in minutes and a deposit does not clear in minutes, so an account with nothing in it is the same as no account when one appears.
And a gap is an estimate off public prices at a moment in time, not a guarantee. The price can move while you are placing the second order, and a pair where only one leg filled is an ordinary bet rather than a hedge. The walkthrough runs the whole thing end to end with real numbers, and today’s board is on the front page.
Other pairings
Kalshi vs PolymarketKalshi vs DraftKingsKalshi vs FanDuelKalshi vs BetMGMKalshi vs BetRiversKalshi vs FanaticsPolymarket vs DraftKingsPolymarket vs FanDuelPolymarket vs BetMGMPolymarket vs BetRiversPolymarket vs FanaticsPolymarket vs Caesars