The basics
Two kinds of prices for the same game
Sportsbooks like DraftKings and FanDuel set odds themselves and build in a margin so they profit no matter who wins.
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket work differently: people trade contracts against each other, and the price is whatever buyers and sellers agree on. A contract costs somewhere between 1¢ and 99¢ and pays $1 if it wins.
What Level looks for
Sometimes the two kinds of venues disagree about the same game. When they disagree enough, you can back one team on a prediction market and the other team at a sportsbook, splitting $100 between the two so that both outcomes pay back roughly the same amount — more than the $100 you put in.
Level checks every pairing using the latest prices available and only shows a card when the estimated result is still positive after the fees and price-movement costs described below.
A worked example
Numbers exaggerated so the math is easy to follow — real gaps are usually much smaller.
Kalshi is selling “Chiefs win” contracts for 42¢ each. FanDuel is offering the Ravens at +140 (bet $100 to win $140).
Level splits $100 so both outcomes pay back the same:
- Spend about $50 buying 119 Chiefs contracts on Kalshi
- Bet about $50 on the Ravens at FanDuel
If the Chiefs win, the contracts pay about $119. If the Ravens win, the FanDuel bet returns about $119. Either way you get back roughly $119 on $100 — about $19 before costs.
Then Level subtracts the costs: roughly $8 in Kalshi trading fees (7¢ per contract) and about $2 for prices moving while you place the orders. The number on the card would be the leftover — about $9 — never the $19.
What we subtract before showing you a number
- Kalshi7¢ per contract trading fee
- Polymarket2% of what you spend
- SlippageAn estimate for prices moving before your orders fill — bigger when a market is thinly traded
- RoundingContracts come in whole numbers, so we round in the direction that works against the estimate, not for it
The number on every card is what’s left after all of that. We never show the bigger before-costs number as the headline.
AI-assisted scouting
AI double-checks the match, not the math
Once a gap clears the cost bar above, AI reviews the pairing itself: does the sportsbook game actually look like the same real-world matchup as the prediction-market contract, and does the sportsbook price look current rather than stale? Cards get a quick badge — verified, or flagged for a second look before you stake.
The AI never touches prices, fees, or the profit number. That part stays plain arithmetic, the same math described above, every time.
Plans
Free vs. Pro
The catch
- Prices move fast. A gap can disappear before you finish placing both orders — sometimes in seconds.
- If one order fills and the other doesn’t, you’re holding a one-sided bet, not a hedge.
- Sportsbooks may limit accounts that consistently take these prices.
- Prediction-market eligibility varies by state and jurisdiction — verify yours before trading.
- Nothing here is guaranteed. These are estimates from public prices at a moment in time.