Track record
Thursday, September 24
55 gaps written down that day, 38 on two-way markets and 17 on soccer, where a draw pays out on neither leg. Every percentage is what the two prices implied after fees at the moment we saw them. Nothing here is recalculated later.
- ATPDane Sweeny vs Taro DanielPolymarket + Kalshi · seen once so far76.5%
- La LigaMalaga @ EspanyolBetMGM + BetRivers · stood 10 hr · a draw pays out on neither leg36.1%
- MLSSalt Lake @ New EnglandPolymarket + BetMGM · seen once so far · a draw pays out on neither leg31.6%
- MLSChicago Fire @ VancouverKalshi + FanDuel · stood 34 hr · a draw pays out on neither leg29.3%
- Ligue 1Lens @ LyonBetRivers + DraftKings · stood 21 hr · a draw pays out on neither leg28.7%
- MLSSalt Lake @ New EnglandKalshi + BetRivers · seen once so far · a draw pays out on neither leg28.5%
- MLSSeattle @ MinnesotaPolymarket + Fanatics · stood 7 hr · a draw pays out on neither leg28.1%
- MLSSeattle @ MinnesotaKalshi + Polymarket · stood 3 days · a draw pays out on neither leg27.4%
- MLSSeattle @ MinnesotaKalshi + Fanatics · stood 9 hr · a draw pays out on neither leg27.1%
- MLSLos Angeles G @ ColoradoKalshi + FanDuel · stood 21 hr · a draw pays out on neither leg26.2%
- MLSNew York RB @ Saint LouisKalshi + Polymarket · stood 60 min · a draw pays out on neither leg23.8%
- MLSHouston @ Kansas CityPolymarket + BetRivers · stood 3 days · a draw pays out on neither leg21.2%
- MLSNashville @ TorontoBetRivers + BetMGM · stood 2 hr · a draw pays out on neither leg21.1%
- MLSNashville @ TorontoPolymarket + BetRivers · stood 36 hr · a draw pays out on neither leg20.6%
- MLSHouston @ Kansas CityKalshi + BetRivers · stood 2 days · a draw pays out on neither leg20.6%
- MLSNashville @ TorontoKalshi + BetRivers · stood 34 hr · a draw pays out on neither leg18.9%
- MLSSeattle @ Kansas CityKalshi + BetRivers · stood 7 days · a draw pays out on neither leg17.2%
- NFLTennessee @ New York GKalshi + BetMGM · seen once so far16.1%
- BundesligaDortmund @ BremenBetRivers + BetMGM · stood 21 hr · a draw pays out on neither leg15.4%
- ATPFederico Cina vs Camilo Ugo CarabelliPolymarket + Kalshi · seen once so far11.4%
- LoL9Gaming vs Saigon WarriorsPolymarket + Kalshi · stood 3 hr8.3%
- CS2Turma do Pagode vs Procyon GamingKalshi + Polymarket · stood 25 hr7.4%
- LoLFlyQuest vs Shopify RebellionPolymarket + Kalshi · stood 16 hr7.0%
- NCAAFWashington @ USCKalshi + DraftKings · seen once so far4.6%
- CS2NAVI Junior vs Iberian SoulPolymarket + Kalshi · seen once so far4.3%
- LoLKawaii Kiwis vs Guinea PinkKalshi + Polymarket · seen once so far3.6%
- CS2WBT vs Eternal FirePolymarket + Kalshi · stood 19 hr3.1%
- CS2Iberian Soul vs PhantomKalshi + Polymarket · stood 3 hr2.6%
- CS2Keyd vs GalorysPolymarket + Kalshi · stood 15 hr2.1%
- ValorantFUT Esports vs JD GamingKalshi + Polymarket · stood 3 days2.1%
- CS2INOX Division vs NemigaPolymarket + Kalshi · stood 5 hr2.1%
- Dota 2Natus Vincere vs Team NemesisKalshi + Polymarket · stood 15 hr1.9%
- CS2fnatic vs HeroicPolymarket + Kalshi · stood 4 hr1.7%
- ValorantEDward Gaming vs LOUDPolymarket + Kalshi · stood 47 hr1.6%
- CS2ALKA vs KeydPolymarket + Kalshi · seen once so far1.4%
- CS2Abyssal vs Arcade EsportsKalshi + Polymarket · stood 15 hr1.3%
- NCAAFBYU @ TCUKalshi + DraftKings · stood 3 days1.1%
- CS2WBT Academy vs RyvexKalshi + Polymarket · stood 5 hr1.0%
- CS2BBL vs 100 ThievesPolymarket + Kalshi · stood 9 hr1.0%
- CS2Apogee Esports vs AstralisPolymarket + Kalshi · stood 10 hr1.0%
- CS2Galorys vs ImperialPolymarket + Kalshi · stood 4 hr0.9%
- CS2Damajuana vs MIBR feKalshi + Polymarket · seen once so far0.9%
- CS2METANOIA WOLVES vs GalorysPolymarket + Kalshi · stood 24 hr0.8%
- NCAAFLouisiana @ CharlotteKalshi + BetRivers · seen once so far0.8%
- CS2Brute vs BBLPolymarket + Kalshi · stood 12 hr0.8%
- CS2Bounty Hunters Esports vs Yawara EsportsKalshi + Polymarket · stood 12 hr0.6%
- CS2Sinners vs AlliancePolymarket + Kalshi · stood 12 hr0.6%
- CS2Wildcard vs NRGPolymarket + Kalshi · stood 34 hr0.5%
- Dota 21win vs GamerLegionKalshi + Polymarket · stood 14 hr0.5%
- Dota 2Team Yandex vs AuroraKalshi + Polymarket · stood 20 hr0.5%
- LoLTeam Liquid vs Cloud9Kalshi + Polymarket · stood 37 hr0.4%
- CS2Yawara Esports vs Juventus GamingKalshi + Polymarket · stood 8 hr0.4%
- CS2Low Cortisol vs MEIA NOITEKalshi + Polymarket · stood 60 min0.2%
- MLBPittsburgh @ DetroitKalshi + Polymarket · seen once so far0.2%
- MLBColorado @ Chicago WSPolymarket + Kalshi · seen once so far0.2%
The full log has every day, and the walkthrough explains the arithmetic.