Tennis
Where ATP prices disagree.
ATP is priced two different ways at the same time: traders set it on Kalshi and Polymarket, and the sportsbooks set it themselves. When the two disagree far enough to survive the fees, it lands here.
Where ATP gets priced
- Prediction markets
- Kalshi and Polymarket
- Sportsbooks
- DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, BetRivers, Fanatics, Caesars
What we have recorded
48
Gaps found
0.9%
Median gap
25.1%
Biggest gap
- Oct 20Arthur Fils vs Jaume MunarKalshi + Polymarket25.1%
- Oct 18Holger Rune vs Raphael CollignonKalshi + Polymarket10.6%
- Oct 18Botic Van de Zandschulp vs Kamil MajchrzakKalshi + Polymarket8.1%
- Oct 12Botic van de Zandschulp vs Rafael JodarPolymarket + BetRivers0.7%
- Oct 12Daniil Medvedev vs Stefanos TsitsipasPolymarket + BetRivers0.8%
- Oct 12Daniil Medvedev vs Stefanos TsitsipasBetMGM + BetRivers1.0%
- Oct 10Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Carlos AlcarazKalshi + DraftKings0.9%
- Oct 10Yunchaokete Bu vs Casper RuudPolymarket + BetRivers0.3%
- Oct 9Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Felix Auger-AliassimeKalshi + Polymarket0.5%
- Oct 8Alex de Minaur vs Alex MolcanKalshi + Polymarket0.3%
- Oct 6Adrian Mannarino vs Nikoloz BasilashviliKalshi + BetRivers0.5%
- Oct 6Hubert Hurkacz vs James DuckworthPolymarket + DraftKings0.6%
- Oct 6Hubert Hurkacz vs James DuckworthPolymarket + FanDuel1.5%
- Oct 6Hubert Hurkacz vs James DuckworthPolymarket + BetRivers0.3%
- Oct 6Hubert Hurkacz vs James DuckworthPolymarket + Fanatics0.9%
- Oct 6Hubert Hurkacz vs James DuckworthPolymarket + BetMGM1.3%
- Oct 6Novak Djokovic vs Alex de MinaurPolymarket + BetRivers2.8%
- Oct 6Arthur Fery vs Marin CilicKalshi + Fanatics2.0%
- Oct 6Hubert Hurkacz vs James DuckworthPolymarket + DraftKings3.2%
- Oct 5Luca Van Assche vs Yunchaokete BuKalshi + BetMGM1.0%
- Oct 5Luca Van Assche vs Yunchaokete BuKalshi + DraftKings1.0%
- Oct 5Hubert Hurkacz vs James DuckworthKalshi + Polymarket2.0%
- Oct 4Alex Bolt vs Lloyd HarrisPolymarket + Kalshi0.4%
- Oct 2Jaume Munar vs Kyrian JacquetPolymarket + BetRivers0.6%
- Sep 30Kei Nishikori vs Frances TiafoePolymarket + BetRivers0.3%
- Sep 30Zhizhen Zhang vs Arthur GeaPolymarket + BetRivers0.2%
- Sep 29Lorenzo Musetti vs Arthur FeryPolymarket + DraftKings18.4%
- Sep 29Taylor Fritz vs Jaume MunarPolymarket + FanDuel0.6%
- Sep 29Hubert Hurkacz vs Alejandro Davidovich FokinaPolymarket + Kalshi14.2%
- Sep 24Federico Cina vs Camilo Ugo CarabelliPolymarket + Kalshi11.4%
The 30 most recent of 48. Every percentage is what the quoted prices implied at the moment we saw them, after fees and after the cost of your own order moving the book. Nobody placed these, and nothing already written is ever recalculated. The whole record across every sport is on the log.
Reading an ATP gap
A gap means backing one side on a prediction market and the other side at a sportsbook, splitting a stake between them so both outcomes pay back more than you put in. The percentage is what is left after Kalshi’s per-contract fee, Polymarket's 2%, and the price movement your own order causes, with the rounding running against the estimate.
It is an estimate from public prices at a moment in time, not a guarantee. A gap can close while you are placing the second order, and a half-filled pair is a one-sided bet rather than a hedge. The walkthrough runs the arithmetic end to end, and today’s live ATP board is on the front page.
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