Tennis
Where ATP prices disagree.
ATP is priced two different ways at the same time: traders set it on Kalshi and Polymarket, and the sportsbooks set it themselves. When the two disagree far enough to survive the fees, it lands here.
Where ATP gets priced
- Prediction markets
- Kalshi and Polymarket
- Sportsbooks
- DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, BetRivers
What we have recorded
9
Gaps found
4.8%
Median gap
40.1%
Biggest gap
- Sep 5Tommy Paul vs Carlos AlcarazPolymarket + BetRivers0.3%
- Sep 5Ben Shelton vs Denis ShapovalovPolymarket + DraftKings9.2%
- Sep 5Ben Shelton vs Denis ShapovalovPolymarket + BetMGM40.1%
- Sep 4Ben Shelton vs Denis ShapovalovPolymarket + DraftKings0.2%
- Sep 4Alexander Blockx vs Flavio CobolliPolymarket + BetRivers0.4%
- Sep 4Ben Shelton vs Denis ShapovalovPolymarket + Kalshi4.8%
- Sep 4Ben Shelton vs Denis ShapovalovKalshi + FanDuel6.4%
- Sep 4Ben Shelton vs Denis ShapovalovFanDuel + Kalshi6.3%
- Sep 4Ben Shelton vs Denis ShapovalovKalshi + BetMGM0.1%
Every percentage is what the quoted prices implied at the moment we saw them, after fees and after the cost of your own order moving the book. Nobody placed these, and nothing already written is ever recalculated. The whole record across every sport is on the log.
Reading an ATP gap
A gap means backing one side on a prediction market and the other side at a sportsbook, splitting a stake between them so both outcomes pay back more than you put in. The percentage is what is left after Kalshi’s per-contract fee, Polymarket's 2%, and the price movement your own order causes, with the rounding running against the estimate.
It is an estimate from public prices at a moment in time, not a guarantee. A gap can close while you are placing the second order, and a half-filled pair is a one-sided bet rather than a hedge. The walkthrough runs the arithmetic end to end, and today’s live ATP board is on the front page.
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