Soccer
Where Serie A prices disagree.
Serie A is priced two different ways at the same time: traders set it on Kalshi and Polymarket, and the sportsbooks set it themselves. When the two disagree far enough to survive the fees, it lands here.
Where Serie A gets priced
- Prediction markets
- Kalshi and Polymarket
- Sportsbooks
- DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, BetRivers
What we have recorded
Read these against the draw. Serie A can end level, and these pairings cover two results out of three. A draw pays out on neither leg and the whole stake goes, so the percentages below are what the pair returns when someone wins — not a hedge against every way the match can end. They sit well above what a two-outcome sport returns for exactly that reason.
30
Gaps found
34.8%
Median gap
39.6%
Biggest gap
- Sep 5Bologna @ SassuoloKalshi + Polymarket35.8%
- Sep 5US Sassuolo Calcio @ Juventus FCBetRivers + FanDuel24.9%
- Sep 5Venezia @ FiorentinaKalshi + BetRivers35.8%
- Sep 5Napoli @ BolognaPolymarket + FanDuel29.7%
- Sep 5Genoa @ FrosinoneBetRivers + FanDuel37.1%
- Sep 5Napoli @ BolognaKalshi + Polymarket28.7%
- Sep 5Venezia @ FiorentinaPolymarket + BetRivers35.4%
- Sep 5Frosinone @ VeneziaKalshi + Polymarket32.9%
- Sep 5Fiorentina @ TorinoKalshi + Polymarket34.5%
- Sep 5SS Lazio @ AC MilanPolymarket + BetRivers39.1%
- Sep 5Parma Calcio @ MonzaKalshi + Polymarket39.6%
- Sep 5Frosinone @ VeneziaKalshi + Polymarket35.6%
- Sep 5Venezia @ FiorentinaKalshi + Polymarket35.6%
- Sep 5Fiorentina @ TorinoKalshi + Polymarket35.0%
- Sep 5Torino FC @ AS RomaBetRivers + FanDuel30.4%
- Sep 5SS Lazio @ AC MilanFanDuel + BetRivers38.9%
- Sep 5Genoa @ FrosinoneKalshi + BetRivers35.1%
- Sep 5Cagliari @ LeccePolymarket + Kalshi38.6%
- Sep 5Inter @ UdinesePolymarket + Kalshi18.5%
- Sep 5Bologna @ SassuoloKalshi + Polymarket33.9%
- Sep 5Napoli @ BolognaKalshi + FanDuel30.7%
- Sep 5Juventus @ MilanKalshi + Polymarket35.0%
- Sep 5Inter @ NapoliKalshi + Polymarket30.5%
- Sep 5Como 1907 @ Parma Calcio 1913Polymarket + BetRivers10.1%
- Sep 5Torino @ RomaKalshi + DraftKings25.3%
- Sep 5US Sassuolo Calcio @ Juventus FCPolymarket + FanDuel24.2%
- Sep 5Lecce @ MonzaKalshi + BetRivers36.5%
- Sep 5Roma @ AtalantaKalshi + Polymarket28.7%
- Sep 5Udinese @ LazioPolymarket + Kalshi39.6%
- Sep 5Atalanta @ CagliariKalshi + BetRivers23.3%
Every percentage is what the quoted prices implied at the moment we saw them, after fees and after the cost of your own order moving the book. Nobody placed these, and nothing already written is ever recalculated. The whole record across every sport is on the log.
Reading a Serie A gap
A gap means backing one side on a prediction market and the other side at a sportsbook, splitting a stake between them so both outcomes pay back more than you put in. A Serie A match has a third outcome, though: the pair covers the home and away results only, and a draw pays out on neither leg. The percentage is what is left after Kalshi’s per-contract fee, Polymarket's 2%, and the price movement your own order causes, with the rounding running against the estimate.
It is an estimate from public prices at a moment in time, not a guarantee. A gap can close while you are placing the second order, and a half-filled pair is a one-sided bet rather than a hedge. The walkthrough runs the arithmetic end to end, and today’s live Serie A board is on the front page.
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