Soccer
Where Serie A prices disagree.
Serie A is priced two different ways at the same time: traders set it on Kalshi and Polymarket, and the sportsbooks set it themselves. When the two disagree far enough to survive the fees, it lands here.
Where Serie A gets priced
- Prediction markets
- Kalshi and Polymarket
- Sportsbooks
- DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, BetRivers, Fanatics, Caesars
What we have recorded
Read these against the draw. Serie A can end level, and these pairings cover two results out of three. A draw pays out on neither leg and the whole stake goes, so the percentages below are what the pair returns when someone wins — not a hedge against every way the match can end. They sit well above what a two-outcome sport returns for exactly that reason.
487
Gaps found
26.8%
Median gap
41.7%
Biggest gap
- Oct 20Genoa @ JuventusKalshi + BetRivers26.2%
- Oct 19Lazio @ Parma CalcioPolymarket + Caesars25.3%
- Oct 19Milan @ BolognaKalshi + BetRivers24.5%
- Oct 19Venezia @ InterBetRivers + Fanatics13.1%
- Oct 19Sassuolo @ LazioPolymarket + Kalshi33.6%
- Oct 19Lazio @ Parma CalcioPolymarket + BetMGM26.8%
- Oct 19Inter @ FiorentinaKalshi + Polymarket15.1%
- Oct 19Inter @ FiorentinaKalshi + BetRivers17.3%
- Oct 19Monza @ CagliariPolymarket + FanDuel37.1%
- Oct 19Torino @ ComoKalshi + BetRivers31.9%
- Oct 19Atalanta @ FrosinoneKalshi + FanDuel24.8%
- Oct 19Venezia @ InterKalshi + BetRivers11.7%
- Oct 19Torino @ ComoKalshi + Polymarket28.4%
- Oct 19Genoa @ JuventusKalshi + Polymarket25.2%
- Oct 18Roma @ CagliariKalshi + Fanatics19.2%
- Oct 18Venezia @ InterKalshi + Fanatics12.6%
- Oct 18Monza @ NapoliKalshi + Polymarket26.9%
- Oct 18Parma Calcio @ UdineseKalshi + Fanatics34.1%
- Oct 18Milan @ BolognaKalshi + Fanatics22.7%
- Oct 18Parma Calcio @ TorinoKalshi + Polymarket41.7%
- Oct 18Lazio @ Parma CalcioKalshi + BetRivers26.2%
- Oct 18Atalanta @ FrosinonePolymarket + BetRivers26.3%
- Oct 18Frosinone @ LecceKalshi + Fanatics28.7%
- Oct 18Genoa @ JuventusKalshi + Fanatics26.9%
- Oct 18Parma Calcio @ UdinesePolymarket + Fanatics37.3%
- Oct 18Sassuolo @ LazioPolymarket + Fanatics31.3%
- Oct 18Udinese @ MilanKalshi + BetMGM29.2%
- Oct 18Fiorentina @ AtalantaKalshi + Fanatics28.8%
- Oct 18Frosinone @ LeccePolymarket + Fanatics28.4%
- Oct 18Monza @ NapoliKalshi + Fanatics27.4%
The 30 most recent of 487. Every percentage is what the quoted prices implied at the moment we saw them, after fees and after the cost of your own order moving the book. Nobody placed these, and nothing already written is ever recalculated. The whole record across every sport is on the log.
Reading a Serie A gap
A gap means backing one side on a prediction market and the other side at a sportsbook, splitting a stake between them so both outcomes pay back more than you put in. A Serie A match has a third outcome, though: the pair covers the home and away results only, and a draw pays out on neither leg. The percentage is what is left after Kalshi’s per-contract fee, Polymarket's 2%, and the price movement your own order causes, with the rounding running against the estimate.
It is an estimate from public prices at a moment in time, not a guarantee. A gap can close while you are placing the second order, and a half-filled pair is a one-sided bet rather than a hedge. The walkthrough runs the arithmetic end to end, and today’s live Serie A board is on the front page.
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