Soccer
Where MLS prices disagree.
MLS is priced two different ways at the same time: traders set it on Kalshi and Polymarket, and the sportsbooks set it themselves. When the two disagree far enough to survive the fees, it lands here.
Where MLS gets priced
- Prediction markets
- Kalshi and Polymarket
- Sportsbooks
- DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, BetRivers, Fanatics, Caesars
What we have recorded
Read these against the draw. MLS can end level, and these pairings cover two results out of three. A draw pays out on neither leg and the whole stake goes, so the percentages below are what the pair returns when someone wins — not a hedge against every way the match can end. They sit well above what a two-outcome sport returns for exactly that reason.
1,138
Gaps found
24.6%
Median gap
38.2%
Biggest gap
- Oct 19Salt Lake @ Saint LouisKalshi + Polymarket26.7%
- Oct 19Cincinnati @ DC UnitedFanDuel + BetRivers26.0%
- Oct 18Los Angeles F @ Los Angeles GKalshi + BetRivers20.8%
- Oct 18Philadelphia @ New EnglandKalshi + BetRivers22.3%
- Oct 18Los Angeles F @ Los Angeles GPolymarket + BetRivers19.4%
- Oct 18Dallas @ San JosePolymarket + Kalshi22.3%
- Oct 18Atlanta @ Chicago FireKalshi + Polymarket25.1%
- Oct 18Cincinnati @ DC UnitedKalshi + BetRivers24.1%
- Oct 18Columbus @ TorontoKalshi + Fanatics21.6%
- Oct 18Colorado @ VancouverKalshi + Fanatics27.2%
- Oct 18Cincinnati @ ColumbusKalshi + FanDuel24.1%
- Oct 18D.C. United SC @ FC CincinnatiPolymarket + BetRivers0.4%
- Oct 18Seattle @ HoustonKalshi + Polymarket4.3%
- Oct 18New York RB @ MiamiPolymarket + Kalshi21.8%
- Oct 18New York RB @ MiamiKalshi + Polymarket22.1%
- Oct 18Montreal @ NashvilleKalshi + BetMGM23.3%
- Oct 18Salt Lake @ Saint LouisFanatics + BetRivers38.2%
- Oct 18Colorado @ VancouverKalshi + Polymarket26.8%
- Oct 18Dallas @ San JoseKalshi + Fanatics25.7%
- Oct 18Portland @ CharlotteKalshi + BetRivers25.5%
- Oct 17San Diego FC @ SeattleKalshi + BetRivers28.8%
- Oct 17Colorado @ VancouverKalshi + BetMGM12.9%
- Oct 17Montreal @ NashvilleBetRivers + FanDuel26.4%
- Oct 17Dallas @ San JoseKalshi + FanDuel26.3%
- Oct 17Portland @ CharlottePolymarket + Kalshi19.6%
- Oct 17New York RB @ MiamiKalshi + BetRivers22.5%
- Oct 17Salt Lake @ Saint LouisKalshi + BetRivers36.8%
- Oct 17Kansas City @ AustinKalshi + BetRivers31.2%
- Oct 17Atlanta @ Chicago FireKalshi + BetRivers28.9%
- Oct 17Houston @ MinnesotaKalshi + FanDuel26.5%
The 30 most recent of 1,138. Every percentage is what the quoted prices implied at the moment we saw them, after fees and after the cost of your own order moving the book. Nobody placed these, and nothing already written is ever recalculated. The whole record across every sport is on the log.
Reading an MLS gap
A gap means backing one side on a prediction market and the other side at a sportsbook, splitting a stake between them so both outcomes pay back more than you put in. A MLS match has a third outcome, though: the pair covers the home and away results only, and a draw pays out on neither leg. The percentage is what is left after Kalshi’s per-contract fee, Polymarket's 2%, and the price movement your own order causes, with the rounding running against the estimate.
It is an estimate from public prices at a moment in time, not a guarantee. A gap can close while you are placing the second order, and a half-filled pair is a one-sided bet rather than a hedge. The walkthrough runs the arithmetic end to end, and today’s live MLS board is on the front page.
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