Soccer
Where MLS prices disagree.
MLS is priced two different ways at the same time: traders set it on Kalshi and Polymarket, and the sportsbooks set it themselves. When the two disagree far enough to survive the fees, it lands here.
Where MLS gets priced
- Prediction markets
- Kalshi and Polymarket
- Sportsbooks
- DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, BetRivers
What we have recorded
Read these against the draw. MLS can end level, and these pairings cover two results out of three. A draw pays out on neither leg and the whole stake goes, so the percentages below are what the pair returns when someone wins — not a hedge against every way the match can end. They sit well above what a two-outcome sport returns for exactly that reason.
80
Gaps found
20.0%
Median gap
32.0%
Biggest gap
- Sep 5Salt Lake @ Los Angeles FKalshi + FanDuel29.8%
- Sep 5Miami @ AtlantaPolymarket + BetMGM15.1%
- Sep 5Philadelphia @ CincinnatiPolymarket + Kalshi18.8%
- Sep 5DC United @ ColumbusFanDuel + BetRivers28.4%
- Sep 5Toronto @ NashvillePolymarket + Kalshi25.1%
- Sep 5Minnesota @ DallasKalshi + BetRivers24.8%
- Sep 5Austin @ ColoradoPolymarket + BetRivers31.6%
- Sep 5Vancouver @ Saint LouisKalshi + Polymarket19.9%
- Sep 5Vancouver @ Saint LouisPolymarket + Kalshi19.9%
- Sep 5Minnesota @ DallasPolymarket + BetRivers26.5%
- Sep 5Colorado @ MontrealPolymarket + BetRivers17.7%
- Sep 5Philadelphia @ CincinnatiKalshi + BetRivers19.9%
- Sep 5New York City @ New EnglandBetRivers + FanDuel31.9%
- Sep 5San Diego FC @ San JosePolymarket + Kalshi20.0%
- Sep 5Orlando @ TorontoKalshi + BetRivers16.6%
- Sep 5Austin @ ColoradoFanDuel + BetRivers32.0%
- Sep 5Los Angeles G @ SeattlePolymarket + Kalshi13.3%
- Sep 5Philadelphia @ CincinnatiPolymarket + BetRivers21.5%
- Sep 5San Diego FC @ San JosePolymarket + BetRivers21.3%
- Sep 5Minnesota @ DallasKalshi + Polymarket22.5%
- Sep 5Columbus @ ColoradoKalshi + Polymarket31.9%
- Sep 5Vancouver @ Los Angeles GKalshi + Polymarket12.4%
- Sep 5Chicago Fire @ MiamiKalshi + Polymarket18.0%
- Sep 5San Jose @ HoustonPolymarket + BetRivers15.5%
- Sep 5Orlando @ TorontoPolymarket + BetRivers13.4%
- Sep 5Salt Lake @ New York CityKalshi + BetRivers12.7%
- Sep 5San Diego FC @ PhiladelphiaPolymarket + BetRivers9.5%
- Sep 5Saint Louis @ MinnesotaKalshi + BetRivers12.4%
- Sep 5Atlanta @ OrlandoPolymarket + Kalshi25.4%
- Sep 5DC United @ ColumbusPolymarket + BetRivers29.6%
The 30 most recent of 80. Every percentage is what the quoted prices implied at the moment we saw them, after fees and after the cost of your own order moving the book. Nobody placed these, and nothing already written is ever recalculated. The whole record across every sport is on the log.
Reading an MLS gap
A gap means backing one side on a prediction market and the other side at a sportsbook, splitting a stake between them so both outcomes pay back more than you put in. A MLS match has a third outcome, though: the pair covers the home and away results only, and a draw pays out on neither leg. The percentage is what is left after Kalshi’s per-contract fee, Polymarket's 2%, and the price movement your own order causes, with the rounding running against the estimate.
It is an estimate from public prices at a moment in time, not a guarantee. A gap can close while you are placing the second order, and a half-filled pair is a one-sided bet rather than a hedge. The walkthrough runs the arithmetic end to end, and today’s live MLS board is on the front page.
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