Soccer
Where Bundesliga prices disagree.
Bundesliga is priced two different ways at the same time: traders set it on Kalshi and Polymarket, and the sportsbooks set it themselves. When the two disagree far enough to survive the fees, it lands here.
Where Bundesliga gets priced
- Prediction markets
- Kalshi and Polymarket
- Sportsbooks
- DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, BetRivers, Fanatics, Caesars
What we have recorded
Read these against the draw. Bundesliga can end level, and these pairings cover two results out of three. A draw pays out on neither leg and the whole stake goes, so the percentages below are what the pair returns when someone wins — not a hedge against every way the match can end. They sit well above what a two-outcome sport returns for exactly that reason.
441
Gaps found
23.4%
Median gap
30.4%
Biggest gap
- Oct 19Mainz @ BremenPolymarket + BetMGM26.4%
- Oct 19Union Berlin @ FC KölnKalshi + BetMGM23.8%
- Oct 19Bremen @ HoffenheimKalshi + Polymarket23.2%
- Oct 19M´gladbach @ PaderbornPolymarket + Kalshi21.9%
- Oct 19Union Berlin @ FC KölnPolymarket + BetMGM27.6%
- Oct 19Bremen @ HoffenheimKalshi + Fanatics23.9%
- Oct 18Freiburg @ Bayern MunichPolymarket + FanDuel15.6%
- Oct 18Freiburg @ Bayern MunichPolymarket + Kalshi15.0%
- Oct 18Elversberg @ MainzKalshi + Polymarket25.2%
- Oct 18Bremen @ HoffenheimKalshi + BetMGM24.4%
- Oct 18FC Köln @ SchalkeKalshi + BetRivers28.3%
- Oct 18Leverkusen @ StuttgartKalshi + Fanatics22.8%
- Oct 18M´gladbach @ PaderbornKalshi + Fanatics22.3%
- Oct 18FC Köln @ SchalkePolymarket + BetRivers29.3%
- Oct 18Augsburg @ FreiburgKalshi + Polymarket23.5%
- Oct 18Bremen @ HoffenheimBetMGM + Fanatics25.2%
- Oct 18Frankfurt @ HamburgKalshi + Fanatics19.8%
- Oct 18Leverkusen @ StuttgartPolymarket + Fanatics22.1%
- Oct 18Schalke @ LeipzigPolymarket + BetMGM27.8%
- Oct 18Elversberg @ MainzKalshi + BetMGM21.1%
- Oct 18Bayern Munich @ DortmundKalshi + BetMGM12.2%
- Oct 18Dortmund @ FrankfurtKalshi + Polymarket17.7%
- Oct 18Frankfurt @ HamburgKalshi + BetMGM18.2%
- Oct 18Leverkusen @ StuttgartFanatics + BetMGM21.3%
- Oct 18Augsburg @ FreiburgKalshi + BetMGM22.2%
- Oct 18Schalke @ LeipzigKalshi + BetMGM21.1%
- Oct 18Bremen @ HoffenheimPolymarket + Fanatics24.9%
- Oct 18M´gladbach @ PaderbornFanatics + BetMGM23.7%
- Oct 18Union Berlin @ FC KölnKalshi + BetMGM26.4%
- Oct 18Paderborn @ HamburgPolymarket + BetMGM30.4%
The 30 most recent of 441. Every percentage is what the quoted prices implied at the moment we saw them, after fees and after the cost of your own order moving the book. Nobody placed these, and nothing already written is ever recalculated. The whole record across every sport is on the log.
Reading a Bundesliga gap
A gap means backing one side on a prediction market and the other side at a sportsbook, splitting a stake between them so both outcomes pay back more than you put in. A Bundesliga match has a third outcome, though: the pair covers the home and away results only, and a draw pays out on neither leg. The percentage is what is left after Kalshi’s per-contract fee, Polymarket's 2%, and the price movement your own order causes, with the rounding running against the estimate.
It is an estimate from public prices at a moment in time, not a guarantee. A gap can close while you are placing the second order, and a half-filled pair is a one-sided bet rather than a hedge. The walkthrough runs the arithmetic end to end, and today’s live Bundesliga board is on the front page.
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