Soccer
Where Bundesliga prices disagree.
Bundesliga is priced two different ways at the same time: traders set it on Kalshi and Polymarket, and the sportsbooks set it themselves. When the two disagree far enough to survive the fees, it lands here.
Where Bundesliga gets priced
- Prediction markets
- Kalshi and Polymarket
- Sportsbooks
- DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, BetRivers
What we have recorded
Read these against the draw. Bundesliga can end level, and these pairings cover two results out of three. A draw pays out on neither leg and the whole stake goes, so the percentages below are what the pair returns when someone wins — not a hedge against every way the match can end. They sit well above what a two-outcome sport returns for exactly that reason.
28
Gaps found
26.8%
Median gap
31.9%
Biggest gap
- Sep 5Elversberg @ Bayern MunichPolymarket + Kalshi8.8%
- Sep 5Mainz @ FrankfurtKalshi + BetMGM28.8%
- Sep 5Hoffenheim @ DortmundKalshi + Polymarket30.2%
- Sep 5Leverkusen @ Union BerlinKalshi + Polymarket19.8%
- Sep 5Dortmund @ PaderbornPolymarket + BetMGM12.6%
- Sep 5Elversberg @ Bayern MunichKalshi + BetMGM9.8%
- Sep 5Paderborn @ FreiburgKalshi + FanDuel31.9%
- Sep 5Bremen @ LeipzigPolymarket + Kalshi26.9%
- Sep 5Elversberg @ Bayern MunichKalshi + FanDuel10.3%
- Sep 5Freiburg @ M´gladbachFanDuel + BetMGM29.5%
- Sep 5Hoffenheim @ DortmundPolymarket + Kalshi28.4%
- Sep 5Hoffenheim @ StuttgartKalshi + BetRivers26.5%
- Sep 5M´gladbach @ ElversbergKalshi + Polymarket30.3%
- Sep 5Paderborn @ FreiburgKalshi + BetMGM31.9%
- Sep 5Freiburg @ M´gladbachKalshi + BetMGM28.5%
- Sep 5Dortmund @ PaderbornKalshi + BetMGM13.0%
- Sep 5Leipzig @ HamburgPolymarket + Kalshi17.4%
- Sep 5Augsburg @ LeverkusenKalshi + FanDuel24.8%
- Sep 5Bremen @ LeipzigKalshi + BetMGM27.4%
- Sep 5Elversberg @ Bayern MunichBetMGM + FanDuel10.7%
- Sep 5Leverkusen @ Union BerlinKalshi + Polymarket19.2%
- Sep 5Mainz @ FrankfurtKalshi + Polymarket27.5%
- Sep 5Union Berlin @ SchalkeKalshi + Polymarket26.9%
- Sep 5Hoffenheim @ DortmundPolymarket + Kalshi26.7%
- Sep 5Frankfurt @ AugsburgKalshi + Polymarket26.8%
- Sep 5Schalke @ Bayern MunichBetMGM + Kalshi10.7%
- Sep 5Hamburg @ MainzKalshi + Polymarket31.8%
- Sep 5FC Köln @ BremenKalshi + BetMGM30.4%
Every percentage is what the quoted prices implied at the moment we saw them, after fees and after the cost of your own order moving the book. Nobody placed these, and nothing already written is ever recalculated. The whole record across every sport is on the log.
Reading a Bundesliga gap
A gap means backing one side on a prediction market and the other side at a sportsbook, splitting a stake between them so both outcomes pay back more than you put in. A Bundesliga match has a third outcome, though: the pair covers the home and away results only, and a draw pays out on neither leg. The percentage is what is left after Kalshi’s per-contract fee, Polymarket's 2%, and the price movement your own order causes, with the rounding running against the estimate.
It is an estimate from public prices at a moment in time, not a guarantee. A gap can close while you are placing the second order, and a half-filled pair is a one-sided bet rather than a hedge. The walkthrough runs the arithmetic end to end, and today’s live Bundesliga board is on the front page.
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