Soccer
Where UCL prices disagree.
UCL is priced two different ways at the same time: traders set it on Kalshi and Polymarket, and the sportsbooks set it themselves. When the two disagree far enough to survive the fees, it lands here.
Where UCL gets priced
- Prediction markets
- Kalshi and Polymarket
- Sportsbooks
- DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, BetRivers
What we have recorded
Read these against the draw. UCL can end level, and these pairings cover two results out of three. A draw pays out on neither leg and the whole stake goes, so the percentages below are what the pair returns when someone wins — not a hedge against every way the match can end. They sit well above what a two-outcome sport returns for exactly that reason.
33
Gaps found
26.3%
Median gap
36.1%
Biggest gap
- Sep 5PSG @ Slovan BratislavaKalshi + Polymarket3.2%
- Sep 5Stuttgart @ VikingPolymarket + BetRivers12.4%
- Sep 5Eindhoven @ ShakhtarBetRivers + BetMGM21.8%
- Sep 5Napoli @ ArsenalPolymarket + BetRivers30.6%
- Sep 5Club Brugge @ Aston VillaPolymarket + BetMGM32.4%
- Sep 5Club Brugge @ Aston VillaKalshi + BetMGM29.6%
- Sep 5Eindhoven @ ShakhtarPolymarket + BetRivers20.4%
- Sep 5Porto @ Manchester CityPolymarket + Kalshi25.3%
- Sep 5Stuttgart @ VikingPolymarket + Kalshi13.3%
- Sep 5Porto @ Manchester CityPolymarket + DraftKings26.9%
- Sep 5Lille @ Real BetisPolymarket + Kalshi30.6%
- Sep 5Sporting CP @ GalatasarayPolymarket + BetMGM30.5%
- Sep 5Bayern Munich @ Bodoe/GlimtBetRivers + BetMGM8.1%
- Sep 5PSG @ Slovan BratislavaPolymarket + Kalshi3.2%
- Sep 5Liverpool @ AtleticoKalshi + BetRivers28.8%
- Sep 5Slavia Prague @ LensPolymarket + BetRivers36.1%
- Sep 5Fenerbahce @ RomaKalshi + Polymarket33.8%
- Sep 5Fenerbahce @ RomaKalshi + BetMGM32.6%
- Sep 5Lille @ Real BetisKalshi + BetRivers33.4%
- Sep 5Stuttgart @ VikingKalshi + Polymarket11.9%
- Sep 5Napoli @ ArsenalKalshi + BetRivers29.7%
- Sep 5Fenerbahce @ RomaKalshi + DraftKings32.6%
- Sep 5Como @ LeipzigPolymarket + Kalshi28.5%
- Sep 5Dortmund @ VillarrealKalshi + BetMGM25.7%
- Sep 5Manchester United @ Sabah MasazirPolymarket + Kalshi11.0%
- Sep 5Real Madrid @ InterKalshi + BetRivers23.9%
- Sep 5Barcelona @ FeyenoordBetRivers + BetMGM8.9%
- Sep 5Eindhoven @ ShakhtarKalshi + BetRivers21.1%
- Sep 5Club Brugge @ Aston VillaBetMGM + BetRivers32.1%
- Sep 5Porto @ Manchester CityPolymarket + BetRivers25.6%
The 30 most recent of 33. Every percentage is what the quoted prices implied at the moment we saw them, after fees and after the cost of your own order moving the book. Nobody placed these, and nothing already written is ever recalculated. The whole record across every sport is on the log.
Reading a UCL gap
A gap means backing one side on a prediction market and the other side at a sportsbook, splitting a stake between them so both outcomes pay back more than you put in. A UCL match has a third outcome, though: the pair covers the home and away results only, and a draw pays out on neither leg. The percentage is what is left after Kalshi’s per-contract fee, Polymarket's 2%, and the price movement your own order causes, with the rounding running against the estimate.
It is an estimate from public prices at a moment in time, not a guarantee. A gap can close while you are placing the second order, and a half-filled pair is a one-sided bet rather than a hedge. The walkthrough runs the arithmetic end to end, and today’s live UCL board is on the front page.
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