Soccer
Where UCL prices disagree.
UCL is priced two different ways at the same time: traders set it on Kalshi and Polymarket, and the sportsbooks set it themselves. When the two disagree far enough to survive the fees, it lands here.
Where UCL gets priced
- Prediction markets
- Kalshi and Polymarket
- Sportsbooks
- DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, BetRivers, Fanatics, Caesars
What we have recorded
Read these against the draw. UCL can end level, and these pairings cover two results out of three. A draw pays out on neither leg and the whole stake goes, so the percentages below are what the pair returns when someone wins — not a hedge against every way the match can end. They sit well above what a two-outcome sport returns for exactly that reason.
500
Gaps found
22.6%
Median gap
32.2%
Biggest gap
- Oct 19PSG @ BarcelonaCaesars + Kalshi21.7%
- Oct 19Bayern Munich @ ArsenalKalshi + Caesars28.8%
- Oct 18Inter @ ShakhtarPolymarket + BetMGM12.4%
- Oct 18Sporting CP @ LASKPolymarket + BetRivers11.4%
- Oct 18Club Brugge @ LensKalshi + Polymarket28.5%
- Oct 18Bayern Munich @ ArsenalKalshi + BetMGM28.9%
- Oct 17Manchester City @ AEK AthensBetRivers + Kalshi6.9%
- Oct 17PSG @ BarcelonaBetRivers + Kalshi23.7%
- Oct 17Porto @ EindhovenKalshi + BetRivers23.1%
- Oct 17Sporting CP @ LASKCaesars + BetRivers14.6%
- Oct 17Club Brugge @ LensKalshi + BetRivers27.7%
- Oct 17Stuttgart @ AtleticoPolymarket + Kalshi28.4%
- Oct 17Porto @ EindhovenPolymarket + BetRivers26.3%
- Oct 17PSG @ BarcelonaPolymarket + DraftKings22.7%
- Oct 17Porto @ EindhovenKalshi + BetRivers23.8%
- Oct 17Roma @ Slovan BratislavaPolymarket + Caesars10.6%
- Oct 17Manchester City @ AEK AthensBetMGM + Kalshi6.9%
- Oct 17Stuttgart @ AtleticoPolymarket + Kalshi30.2%
- Oct 17Manchester City @ AEK AthensPolymarket + BetMGM5.7%
- Oct 17Lille @ GalatasarayPolymarket + BetRivers30.8%
- Oct 17Porto @ EindhovenKalshi + Polymarket22.3%
- Oct 17Fenerbahce @ Slavia PraguePolymarket + BetRivers26.1%
- Oct 17Lille @ GalatasarayBetRivers + BetMGM31.2%
- Oct 17Stuttgart @ AtleticoKalshi + DraftKings32.2%
- Oct 17Real Madrid @ LeipzigKalshi + Caesars16.1%
- Oct 17Liverpool @ VillarrealKalshi + Caesars21.5%
- Oct 16Sporting CP @ LASKCaesars + BetMGM15.1%
- Oct 16PSG @ BarcelonaKalshi + BetRivers22.1%
- Oct 16Manchester City @ AEK AthensCaesars + Kalshi5.3%
- Oct 16Napoli @ Bodoe/GlimtKalshi + Polymarket22.4%
The 30 most recent of 500. Every percentage is what the quoted prices implied at the moment we saw them, after fees and after the cost of your own order moving the book. Nobody placed these, and nothing already written is ever recalculated. The whole record across every sport is on the log.
Reading a UCL gap
A gap means backing one side on a prediction market and the other side at a sportsbook, splitting a stake between them so both outcomes pay back more than you put in. A UCL match has a third outcome, though: the pair covers the home and away results only, and a draw pays out on neither leg. The percentage is what is left after Kalshi’s per-contract fee, Polymarket's 2%, and the price movement your own order causes, with the rounding running against the estimate.
It is an estimate from public prices at a moment in time, not a guarantee. A gap can close while you are placing the second order, and a half-filled pair is a one-sided bet rather than a hedge. The walkthrough runs the arithmetic end to end, and today’s live UCL board is on the front page.
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