Soccer
Where Ligue 1 prices disagree.
Ligue 1 is priced two different ways at the same time: traders set it on Kalshi and Polymarket, and the sportsbooks set it themselves. When the two disagree far enough to survive the fees, it lands here.
Where Ligue 1 gets priced
- Prediction markets
- Kalshi and Polymarket
- Sportsbooks
- DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, BetRivers, Fanatics, Caesars
What we have recorded
Read these against the draw. Ligue 1 can end level, and these pairings cover two results out of three. A draw pays out on neither leg and the whole stake goes, so the percentages below are what the pair returns when someone wins — not a hedge against every way the match can end. They sit well above what a two-outcome sport returns for exactly that reason.
425
Gaps found
25.1%
Median gap
38.0%
Biggest gap
- Oct 19Marseille @ ToulouseKalshi + Polymarket23.5%
- Oct 19Paris FC @ MonacoKalshi + Polymarket28.4%
- Oct 19Stade Rennais @ Strasbourg AlsaceKalshi + BetRivers23.6%
- Oct 19Troyes @ Le MansPolymarket + Kalshi28.5%
- Oct 19Paris FC @ MonacoKalshi + DraftKings27.0%
- Oct 18Le Havre @ PSGKalshi + Fanatics10.4%
- Oct 18Stade Rennais @ Strasbourg AlsacePolymarket + BetRivers24.3%
- Oct 18Angers @ LorientPolymarket + BetRivers38.0%
- Oct 18Lens @ Paris FCKalshi + BetRivers32.2%
- Oct 18Lorient @ Stade Brest 29Kalshi + Polymarket30.1%
- Oct 18Lyon @ AngersKalshi + Polymarket15.0%
- Oct 18Marseille @ ToulouseKalshi + BetMGM26.4%
- Oct 18Lyon @ AngersPolymarket + FanDuel15.6%
- Oct 18Marseille @ ToulouseKalshi + Fanatics24.4%
- Oct 18Paris FC @ MonacoKalshi + FanDuel27.0%
- Oct 18Troyes @ Le MansPolymarket + FanDuel26.6%
- Oct 18Nice @ Stade RennaisPolymarket + Kalshi28.4%
- Oct 18Le Havre @ PSGKalshi + Fanatics12.4%
- Oct 18Lyon @ AngersKalshi + FanDuel14.1%
- Oct 18Lorient @ Stade Brest 29Kalshi + Fanatics30.9%
- Oct 18Nice @ Stade RennaisKalshi + Fanatics26.5%
- Oct 18Troyes @ Le MansKalshi + FanDuel25.0%
- Oct 18Lille @ LensKalshi + FanDuel25.3%
- Oct 18Paris FC @ MonacoKalshi + Fanatics26.8%
- Oct 18Strasbourg Alsace @ AuxerreKalshi + BetMGM25.7%
- Oct 18Marseille @ ToulouseKalshi + BetMGM24.9%
- Oct 18Le Havre @ PSGPolymarket + Kalshi1.2%
- Oct 18Lorient @ Stade Brest 29Polymarket + Kalshi22.8%
- Oct 18Troyes @ Le MansKalshi + Polymarket6.6%
- Oct 18Lille @ LensKalshi + Polymarket1.9%
The 30 most recent of 425. Every percentage is what the quoted prices implied at the moment we saw them, after fees and after the cost of your own order moving the book. Nobody placed these, and nothing already written is ever recalculated. The whole record across every sport is on the log.
Reading a Ligue 1 gap
A gap means backing one side on a prediction market and the other side at a sportsbook, splitting a stake between them so both outcomes pay back more than you put in. A Ligue 1 match has a third outcome, though: the pair covers the home and away results only, and a draw pays out on neither leg. The percentage is what is left after Kalshi’s per-contract fee, Polymarket's 2%, and the price movement your own order causes, with the rounding running against the estimate.
It is an estimate from public prices at a moment in time, not a guarantee. A gap can close while you are placing the second order, and a half-filled pair is a one-sided bet rather than a hedge. The walkthrough runs the arithmetic end to end, and today’s live Ligue 1 board is on the front page.
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