Soccer
Where Ligue 1 prices disagree.
Ligue 1 is priced two different ways at the same time: traders set it on Kalshi and Polymarket, and the sportsbooks set it themselves. When the two disagree far enough to survive the fees, it lands here.
Where Ligue 1 gets priced
- Prediction markets
- Kalshi and Polymarket
- Sportsbooks
- DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, BetRivers
What we have recorded
Read these against the draw. Ligue 1 can end level, and these pairings cover two results out of three. A draw pays out on neither leg and the whole stake goes, so the percentages below are what the pair returns when someone wins — not a hedge against every way the match can end. They sit well above what a two-outcome sport returns for exactly that reason.
24
Gaps found
27.5%
Median gap
37.6%
Biggest gap
- Sep 5Lille @ TroyesFanDuel + DraftKings21.0%
- Sep 5Angers @ Stade RennaisKalshi + Polymarket26.8%
- Sep 5Marseille @ Paris FCKalshi + Polymarket25.4%
- Sep 5Paris FC @ LyonKalshi + Polymarket28.4%
- Sep 5Stade Brest 29 @ PSGPolymarket + Kalshi12.4%
- Sep 5Le Havre @ Stade Brest 29Kalshi + Polymarket37.6%
- Sep 5Lorient @ ToulousePolymarket + Kalshi33.8%
- Sep 5Lens @ LorientKalshi + Polymarket22.2%
- Sep 5Lens @ LorientPolymarket + FanDuel26.1%
- Sep 5Paris FC @ LyonPolymarket + Kalshi30.1%
- Sep 5Marseille @ Paris FCKalshi + Polymarket26.9%
- Sep 5Angers @ Stade RennaisKalshi + Polymarket27.0%
- Sep 5Nice @ Le MansKalshi + Polymarket28.5%
- Sep 5Troyes @ Strasbourg AlsaceKalshi + Polymarket35.7%
- Sep 5Auxerre @ NiceKalshi + Polymarket31.9%
- Sep 5Strasbourg Alsace @ MonacoKalshi + BetRivers28.0%
- Sep 5Le Havre @ AngersKalshi + Polymarket33.8%
- Sep 5Stade Rennais @ MarseilleKalshi + Polymarket30.1%
- Sep 5Le Mans @ LensKalshi + Polymarket22.5%
- Sep 5Le Havre @ Stade Brest 29Kalshi + Polymarket37.6%
- Sep 5Lorient @ ToulouseKalshi + Polymarket33.8%
- Sep 5Stade Brest 29 @ PSGKalshi + Polymarket13.0%
- Sep 5Lens @ LorientKalshi + Polymarket21.1%
- Sep 5Lille @ TroyesKalshi + FanDuel19.4%
Every percentage is what the quoted prices implied at the moment we saw them, after fees and after the cost of your own order moving the book. Nobody placed these, and nothing already written is ever recalculated. The whole record across every sport is on the log.
Reading a Ligue 1 gap
A gap means backing one side on a prediction market and the other side at a sportsbook, splitting a stake between them so both outcomes pay back more than you put in. A Ligue 1 match has a third outcome, though: the pair covers the home and away results only, and a draw pays out on neither leg. The percentage is what is left after Kalshi’s per-contract fee, Polymarket's 2%, and the price movement your own order causes, with the rounding running against the estimate.
It is an estimate from public prices at a moment in time, not a guarantee. A gap can close while you are placing the second order, and a half-filled pair is a one-sided bet rather than a hedge. The walkthrough runs the arithmetic end to end, and today’s live Ligue 1 board is on the front page.
Other sports
NFLMLBNBAATPWTANHLNCAAFNCAABEPLUCLMLSLa LigaSerie ABundesligaLoLCS2Dota 2Valorant