Soccer
Where EPL prices disagree.
EPL is priced two different ways at the same time: traders set it on Kalshi and Polymarket, and the sportsbooks set it themselves. When the two disagree far enough to survive the fees, it lands here.
Where EPL gets priced
- Prediction markets
- Kalshi and Polymarket
- Sportsbooks
- DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, BetRivers, Fanatics, Caesars
What we have recorded
Read these against the draw. EPL can end level, and these pairings cover two results out of three. A draw pays out on neither leg and the whole stake goes, so the percentages below are what the pair returns when someone wins — not a hedge against every way the match can end. They sit well above what a two-outcome sport returns for exactly that reason.
547
Gaps found
28.1%
Median gap
37.6%
Biggest gap
- Oct 19Chelsea @ Manchester UnitedPolymarket + Kalshi26.9%
- Oct 19Tottenham @ Crystal PalaceKalshi + FanDuel23.5%
- Oct 19Aston Villa @ FulhamKalshi + Polymarket26.7%
- Oct 19Liverpool @ ArsenalPolymarket + Kalshi28.4%
- Oct 19Manchester City @ BrightonKalshi + Polymarket22.1%
- Oct 18Newcastle @ EvertonKalshi + FanDuel27.1%
- Oct 18Hull City @ BrentfordKalshi + Polymarket28.6%
- Oct 18Sunderland @ Leeds UnitedKalshi + Polymarket37.6%
- Oct 18Arsenal @ EvertonKalshi + Polymarket22.0%
- Oct 18Chelsea @ TottenhamKalshi + Polymarket23.8%
- Oct 18Bournemouth @ Leeds UnitedPolymarket + Kalshi30.2%
- Oct 18Manchester City @ BrightonPolymarket + Kalshi23.9%
- Oct 18Liverpool @ ArsenalKalshi + Fanatics28.8%
- Oct 18Tottenham @ Crystal PalaceKalshi + Polymarket22.1%
- Oct 18Bournemouth @ Leeds UnitedKalshi + Polymarket26.7%
- Oct 18Manchester City @ BrightonPolymarket + Fanatics25.1%
- Oct 18Coventry @ SunderlandKalshi + Polymarket30.1%
- Oct 18Chelsea @ Manchester UnitedPolymarket + Fanatics33.3%
- Oct 18Aston Villa @ FulhamPolymarket + Kalshi28.5%
- Oct 18Hull City @ Ipswich TownKalshi + Polymarket30.3%
- Oct 18Coventry @ SunderlandPolymarket + Kalshi31.9%
- Oct 18Brentford @ Nottingham ForestPolymarket + Kalshi25.2%
- Oct 18Liverpool @ ArsenalKalshi + FanDuel28.8%
- Oct 18Coventry @ SunderlandKalshi + FanDuel36.8%
- Oct 18Manchester City @ BrightonPolymarket + FanDuel29.2%
- Oct 18Bournemouth @ Leeds UnitedKalshi + Fanatics30.4%
- Oct 18Aston Villa @ FulhamKalshi + FanDuel28.3%
- Oct 18Brentford @ Nottingham ForestKalshi + Fanatics26.4%
- Oct 18Tottenham @ Crystal PalaceKalshi + Fanatics24.4%
- Oct 18Nottingham Forest @ ArsenalBetMGM + BetRivers27.8%
The 30 most recent of 547. Every percentage is what the quoted prices implied at the moment we saw them, after fees and after the cost of your own order moving the book. Nobody placed these, and nothing already written is ever recalculated. The whole record across every sport is on the log.
Reading an EPL gap
A gap means backing one side on a prediction market and the other side at a sportsbook, splitting a stake between them so both outcomes pay back more than you put in. A EPL match has a third outcome, though: the pair covers the home and away results only, and a draw pays out on neither leg. The percentage is what is left after Kalshi’s per-contract fee, Polymarket's 2%, and the price movement your own order causes, with the rounding running against the estimate.
It is an estimate from public prices at a moment in time, not a guarantee. A gap can close while you are placing the second order, and a half-filled pair is a one-sided bet rather than a hedge. The walkthrough runs the arithmetic end to end, and today’s live EPL board is on the front page.
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