Soccer
Where EPL prices disagree.
EPL is priced two different ways at the same time: traders set it on Kalshi and Polymarket, and the sportsbooks set it themselves. When the two disagree far enough to survive the fees, it lands here.
Where EPL gets priced
- Prediction markets
- Kalshi and Polymarket
- Sportsbooks
- DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, BetRivers
What we have recorded
Read these against the draw. EPL can end level, and these pairings cover two results out of three. A draw pays out on neither leg and the whole stake goes, so the percentages below are what the pair returns when someone wins — not a hedge against every way the match can end. They sit well above what a two-outcome sport returns for exactly that reason.
39
Gaps found
30.2%
Median gap
38.4%
Biggest gap
- Sep 5Aston Villa @ Nottingham ForestKalshi + FanDuel30.4%
- Sep 5Fulham @ Crystal PalaceKalshi + BetRivers35.3%
- Sep 5Brentford @ SunderlandBetRivers + Polymarket30.8%
- Sep 5Nottingham Forest @ TottenhamDraftKings + Polymarket34.2%
- Sep 5Fulham @ Crystal PalacePolymarket + BetRivers38.4%
- Sep 5Everton @ Manchester UnitedPolymarket + Kalshi28.5%
- Sep 5Nottingham Forest @ TottenhamPolymarket + DraftKings34.6%
- Sep 5Hull City @ Aston VillaKalshi + Polymarket30.4%
- Sep 5Nottingham Forest @ TottenhamPolymarket + DraftKings34.2%
- Sep 5Brentford @ SunderlandPolymarket + BetRivers30.8%
- Sep 5Liverpool @ FulhamKalshi + BetRivers19.8%
- Sep 5Arsenal @ ChelseaPolymarket + Kalshi26.0%
- Sep 5Brighton @ Leeds UnitedKalshi + DraftKings35.9%
- Sep 5Fulham @ Crystal PalaceKalshi + Polymarket35.7%
- Sep 5Brentford @ SunderlandPolymarket + Kalshi28.8%
- Sep 5Everton @ Manchester UnitedPolymarket + Kalshi30.2%
- Sep 5Fulham @ Crystal PalaceKalshi + DraftKings35.8%
- Sep 5Bournemouth @ BrentfordKalshi + Polymarket30.1%
- Sep 5Coventry @ BrightonKalshi + Polymarket28.0%
- Sep 5Brighton @ Leeds UnitedKalshi + Polymarket31.5%
- Sep 5Newcastle @ BournemouthKalshi + Polymarket30.2%
- Sep 5Crystal Palace @ Ipswich TownPolymarket + Kalshi27.1%
- Sep 5Manchester City @ CoventryKalshi + Polymarket7.6%
- Sep 5Nottingham Forest @ TottenhamPolymarket + Kalshi32.0%
- Sep 5Everton @ Manchester UnitedKalshi + Polymarket30.2%
- Sep 5Manchester United @ Manchester CityKalshi + Polymarket25.2%
- Sep 5Tottenham @ EvertonKalshi + Polymarket30.2%
- Sep 5Liverpool @ FulhamPolymarket + Kalshi18.3%
- Sep 5Aston Villa @ Nottingham ForestKalshi + Polymarket30.2%
- Sep 5Chelsea @ Hull CityPolymarket + Kalshi13.4%
The 30 most recent of 39. Every percentage is what the quoted prices implied at the moment we saw them, after fees and after the cost of your own order moving the book. Nobody placed these, and nothing already written is ever recalculated. The whole record across every sport is on the log.
Reading an EPL gap
A gap means backing one side on a prediction market and the other side at a sportsbook, splitting a stake between them so both outcomes pay back more than you put in. A EPL match has a third outcome, though: the pair covers the home and away results only, and a draw pays out on neither leg. The percentage is what is left after Kalshi’s per-contract fee, Polymarket's 2%, and the price movement your own order causes, with the rounding running against the estimate.
It is an estimate from public prices at a moment in time, not a guarantee. A gap can close while you are placing the second order, and a half-filled pair is a one-sided bet rather than a hedge. The walkthrough runs the arithmetic end to end, and today’s live EPL board is on the front page.
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