Football
Where NFL prices disagree.
NFL is priced two different ways at the same time: traders set it on Kalshi and Polymarket, and the sportsbooks set it themselves. When the two disagree far enough to survive the fees, it lands here.
Where NFL gets priced
- Prediction markets
- Kalshi and Polymarket
- Sportsbooks
- DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, BetRivers, Fanatics, Caesars
What we have recorded
53
Gaps found
0.6%
Median gap
16.1%
Biggest gap
- Oct 19Green Bay @ DetroitKalshi + FanDuel0.3%
- Oct 18Miami @ New York JDraftKings + BetRivers0.5%
- Oct 18Cincinnati @ BaltimoreKalshi + FanDuel0.2%
- Oct 18Green Bay @ DetroitKalshi + BetRivers2.0%
- Oct 16New York G @ HoustonKalshi + BetRivers0.4%
- Oct 11New Orleans @ New York GKalshi + BetRivers0.2%
- Oct 11New Orleans @ New York GPolymarket + BetRivers1.0%
- Oct 11Chicago @ AtlantaBetRivers + DraftKings1.6%
- Oct 8Baltimore @ ClevelandKalshi + DraftKings0.6%
- Oct 7Baltimore @ ClevelandFanDuel + BetRivers1.2%
- Oct 7Baltimore @ ClevelandFanDuel + Caesars5.1%
- Oct 6Houston @ TennesseePolymarket + BetRivers0.9%
- Oct 4Baltimore @ AtlantaPolymarket + DraftKings0.6%
- Oct 4Chicago @ Green BayPolymarket + DraftKings0.2%
- Oct 4Las Vegas @ New EnglandKalshi + FanDuel0.7%
- Oct 4Chicago @ Green BayPolymarket + Caesars0.7%
- Oct 2Las Vegas @ New EnglandKalshi + DraftKings0.9%
- Oct 1Cincinnati @ MiamiPolymarket + DraftKings0.7%
- Sep 29Los Angeles R @ PhiladelphiaPolymarket + Caesars0.6%
- Sep 28Kansas City @ Las VegasCaesars + Kalshi0.3%
- Sep 27Kansas City @ Las VegasKalshi + DraftKings0.6%
- Sep 27Jacksonville @ CincinnatiPolymarket + Caesars0.5%
- Sep 27Green Bay @ Tampa BayPolymarket + DraftKings0.4%
- Sep 27Los Angeles C @ SeattleKalshi + FanDuel5.1%
- Sep 27Miami @ MinnesotaKalshi + DraftKings0.3%
- Sep 24Tennessee @ New York GKalshi + BetMGM16.1%
- Sep 22Miami @ MinnesotaPolymarket + DraftKings0.4%
- Sep 22Los Angeles R @ PhiladelphiaPolymarket + DraftKings0.6%
- Sep 22New York J @ ChicagoDraftKings + FanDuel0.6%
- Sep 20Philadelphia @ ChicagoPolymarket + BetRivers0.6%
The 30 most recent of 53. Every percentage is what the quoted prices implied at the moment we saw them, after fees and after the cost of your own order moving the book. Nobody placed these, and nothing already written is ever recalculated. The whole record across every sport is on the log.
Reading an NFL gap
A gap means backing one side on a prediction market and the other side at a sportsbook, splitting a stake between them so both outcomes pay back more than you put in. The percentage is what is left after Kalshi’s per-contract fee, Polymarket's 2%, and the price movement your own order causes, with the rounding running against the estimate.
It is an estimate from public prices at a moment in time, not a guarantee. A gap can close while you are placing the second order, and a half-filled pair is a one-sided bet rather than a hedge. The walkthrough runs the arithmetic end to end, and today’s live NFL board is on the front page.
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