Soccer
Where La Liga prices disagree.
La Liga is priced two different ways at the same time: traders set it on Kalshi and Polymarket, and the sportsbooks set it themselves. When the two disagree far enough to survive the fees, it lands here.
Where La Liga gets priced
- Prediction markets
- Kalshi and Polymarket
- Sportsbooks
- DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, BetRivers
What we have recorded
Read these against the draw. La Liga can end level, and these pairings cover two results out of three. A draw pays out on neither leg and the whole stake goes, so the percentages below are what the pair returns when someone wins — not a hedge against every way the match can end. They sit well above what a two-outcome sport returns for exactly that reason.
57
Gaps found
31.6%
Median gap
41.6%
Biggest gap
- Sep 5Celta Vigo @ MalagaDraftKings + BetRivers28.1%
- Sep 5Sevilla @ ValenciaPolymarket + FanDuel41.6%
- Sep 5Elche @ Real SociedadKalshi + Polymarket31.9%
- Sep 5Getafe @ Deportivo De La CorunaPolymarket + Kalshi39.7%
- Sep 5Valencia @ BarcelonaPolymarket + BetMGM16.8%
- Sep 5Santander @ AlavesPolymarket + DraftKings32.4%
- Sep 5Santander @ AlavesKalshi + Polymarket30.1%
- Sep 5Bilbao @ ElchePolymarket + Kalshi24.1%
- Sep 5Real Sociedad @ AtleticoKalshi + Polymarket25.2%
- Sep 5Vallecano @ EspanyolKalshi + Polymarket0.7%
- Sep 5Levante @ BilbaoKalshi + Polymarket4.3%
- Sep 5Alaves @ ValenciaKalshi + Polymarket0.4%
- Sep 5Osasuna @ EspanyolPolymarket + BetRivers36.8%
- Sep 5Bilbao @ ElchePolymarket + BetMGM25.7%
- Sep 5Bilbao @ AtleticoDraftKings + Kalshi35.2%
- Sep 5Malaga @ VillarrealKalshi + Polymarket4.2%
- Sep 5Real Sociedad @ AtleticoPolymarket + BetRivers27.4%
- Sep 5Osasuna @ EspanyolKalshi + Polymarket35.8%
- Sep 5Bilbao @ ElcheKalshi + BetMGM27.0%
- Sep 5Real Madrid @ VallecanoPolymarket + BetMGM9.0%
- Sep 5Sevilla @ ValenciaPolymarket + Kalshi36.3%
- Sep 5Villarreal @ Real BetisPolymarket + BetRivers30.2%
- Sep 5Santander @ AlavesPolymarket + Kalshi31.2%
- Sep 5Bilbao @ AtleticoPolymarket + Kalshi35.7%
- Sep 5Real Racing Club @ Deportivo AlavésPolymarket + DraftKings32.4%
- Sep 5Bilbao @ AtleticoPolymarket + Kalshi33.8%
- Sep 5Bilbao @ AtleticoPolymarket + FanDuel38.0%
- Sep 5Vallecano @ SantanderKalshi + FanDuel34.0%
- Sep 5Vallecano @ SantanderPolymarket + FanDuel35.1%
- Sep 5Bilbao @ AtleticoFanDuel + Kalshi34.9%
The 30 most recent of 57. Every percentage is what the quoted prices implied at the moment we saw them, after fees and after the cost of your own order moving the book. Nobody placed these, and nothing already written is ever recalculated. The whole record across every sport is on the log.
Reading a La Liga gap
A gap means backing one side on a prediction market and the other side at a sportsbook, splitting a stake between them so both outcomes pay back more than you put in. A La Liga match has a third outcome, though: the pair covers the home and away results only, and a draw pays out on neither leg. The percentage is what is left after Kalshi’s per-contract fee, Polymarket's 2%, and the price movement your own order causes, with the rounding running against the estimate.
It is an estimate from public prices at a moment in time, not a guarantee. A gap can close while you are placing the second order, and a half-filled pair is a one-sided bet rather than a hedge. The walkthrough runs the arithmetic end to end, and today’s live La Liga board is on the front page.
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